As for his own life cycle predictions, Gauthier hazarded that "CT detectors will go flat panel, mark my words." He said this was because they could possibly provide lower doses, and also weighed less and could allow smaller scanners to fit in tighter spaces.

Overall, from his work, Gauthier estimated that upgrades fell short about 60 percent of the time.


"You can get technology obsolescence very quickly," he said.

ACOs and speed

The speed of obsolescence was a point echoed later in the conference by Webster, who described how advances in technology have accelerated the rate at which devices become obsolete (Disclosure: Webster sits on the editorial advisory board of DOTmed).

"We went from machines that were routinely good from five to seven years. Now, it's three years if we're lucky. Technology was moving so fast that we got used to replacing everything rapidly."


But in Webster's view, arguably the biggest shake-up facing dealers and servicers can be captured in three words: accountable care organizations.

In ACOs, which were set up by the Affordable Care Act, hospitals pledge to drive down costs to treat populations of Medicare patients, and share a part of whatever savings they bring with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

"You must pay very careful attention," Webster warned. "It will drive how (providers) make all their decisions. It's totally upside down from the way we ever looked at everything."

He said that ACOs, approved in three-year terms by CMS, are not quite like the HMOs or managed plans they're frequently compared to, and could have more powerful effect on shaping how providers buy and manage equipment.

For instance, an April New York Times article found that a hospital drove down admissions 6 percent in an effort to control costs, after it had joined an ACO.

"Their only goal is to do one thing: reduce expenses," Webster said.

In any case, even if business factors don't convince administrators or dealers to pick up The Economist every week, Ammendola suggested a rather social advantage to being well-informed on world economics issues.

"Clients love to talk with people who have intelligent things to say," he said. "The better informed you appear, the quicker you understand broad trends, the more clients will think, 'What a smart man, what a smart woman, I better trust his person.'"

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